Providing a voice for businesses
Since its inception in October 2009, the Cairngorms Business Barometer has provided critical insights into the performance, sentiment, and confidence of businesses operating in the Cairngorms region. Conducted regularly, the Barometer has completed 58 waves of surveys over nearly 15 years, offering a comprehensive health check on business confidence and performance in the local area. This regular feedback has not only shaped strategic decisions for the Cairngorms Business Partnership (CBP) but also influenced wider tourism and economic initiatives across the region.
The Cairngorms Business Barometer has also served as a voice for businesses, collecting timely and robust data on the challenges they face and the support they require – this has been especially important during difficult times, particularly the Covid 19 pandemic and ongoing cost of living crisis.
As the survey evolves, a refreshed format is to be introduced in Autumn 2024 to ensure it remains valuable, relevant, and easy to complete.
Setting the scene – a period of change
The 15 years since the Cairngorms Business Barometer launched have been a period of significant change for the UK economy, marked by fluctuating consumer confidence and tourism demand. Since the Barometer’s launch in late 2009, the UK economy has faced a series of challenges that have also impacted businesses in the Cairngorms. While consumer confidence has varied dramatically during this period, recent months have shown signs of improvement but, on writing, the August 2024 results suggest a downturn as households nervously await the Autumn budget statement.
During this period, international tourism to Scotland has seen a period of growth with six consecutive years of increases up to 2018 and 2023 marking a record year for international tourism in the country. The notable exception to this trend was of course the period of lockdown as international tourism essentially stopped during the height of pandemic restrictions.
However, domestic tourism, which accounts for around four in five holidaymakers in Scotland, has experienced a more varied trend over the same period. While Scotland benefited from a ‘staycation’ boom from 2009 to 2012 following the 2008 financial crash and again during the Covid-19 pandemic when international travel restrictions were in place, more recently Scots and other UK residents have increasingly chosen to travel abroad again. While 56 Degree Insight’s August 2024 Scottish Tourism Index showed that Scotland remained the favourite destination for Scots for short breaks, with the Highlands continuing to be the most visited region, a dip in domestic visitor numbers during the summer of 2024 reflects the ongoing challenges.
In particular, rising costs have impacted on domestic tourist’s perceptions of value for money. When Scots were asked to what extent they felt that value for money of Scotland as a destination had changed in the last 10 years, almost half (45%) felt it was now poorer.
The rising costs of living also are influencing how Scots choose to spend their money during staycations. While demand to eat out and visit attractions had declined during the last 3 years, demand to take part in outdoor pursuits and self-cater has increased.
Tracking business views over this period
The Cairngorms Business Barometer has provided a continuous measure of how businesses have performed and their levels of confidence over this period of change.
Anticipated levels of growth in numbers of customers among businesses in the Cairngorms has generally mirrored the broader economic trends described previously, dipping in periods of recession and increasing in periods when consumer confidence is high.
Following the pandemic there was a period of recovery but this slowed in 2023, with many businesses in the Cairngorms reporting a plateau in growth. However, by early 2024 increasing percentages of businesses were expressing some growing optimism about the future.
Asked to rank how confident they felt about the future on a scale from 0 to 10 , the responses provided by business during the last year suggested higher confidence than the average recorded over the previous 14 years in relation to the short term (next 3 months), marginally higher confidence for the medium term (next 12 months) but lower than average confidence for the longer term (next 24 months).
This mixed picture reflects the levels of uncertainty faced by businesses caused by the volatile market and a number of the challenges businesses are currently facing.
During the most recent 12 months of the survey, businesses have faced a number of difficulties which have presented more of a barrier to business than in previous years, As in the most notable of these included bureaucracy/ legislation, rising costs, staffing shortages and staffing costs.
More positively the scale of each of these challenges appeared to have eased slightly in early 2024 as the rates of rising costs slowed and some of the burdens faced around new legislation reduced.
It’s also positive to see that weather as a business barrier in the Cairngorms significantly decreased over the 15-year period, potentially due to the introduction of more all-weather facilities in the region.
While businesses in the Cairngorms continue to face and overcome challenges it is notable that in general they continue to report that the area’s National Park status positively affects both the appeal of the area and their profitability.
Additionally, the survey has consistently found that the support provided by Cairngorm Business Partnership and the Cairngorms National Park Authority (CNPA) has received predominantly positive feedback. Indeed the survey has found that this value placed on Cairngorm Business Partnership’s support has grown over time and has been particularly appreciated during periods when businesses face the greatest challenges such as during the Covid 19 pandemic.
Next steps for the Cairngorms Business Barometer
The Cairngorms Business Barometer has proven to be an invaluable tool over the last 15 years for tracking long-term trends and providing up to date feedback on the key issues affecting local businesses.
Looking ahead, this Autumn the survey will be refreshed and relaunched with updated questions and reports to ensure continued relevance to its users.
Craig Mills, Chief Executive at Cairngorms Partnership commented “The Cairngorms Business Barometer has been a vital resource for us and our members, guiding our strategies and shaping our outputs. Thanks to the support of the Cairngorms National Park Authority, and the expertise of 56 Degree Insight in conducting and analysing the survey, we’ve been able to track business trends and sentiment across the region for nearly 15 years. The longevity of this survey provides us with deep insights into long-term shifts, allowing us to respond effectively to the evolving needs of local businesses. We look forward to continuing this collaboration, using the refreshed Barometer to foster growth and resilience in the Cairngorms.”
Invitations to participate in the next wave will be landing in the inboxes of Cairngorms businesses soon! If you would like to take part contact us at office@visitcairngorms.com